Demand Analysis

e-Projection is the best partner for our clients who are in need of knowing the Japanese local pharmaceutical market.

Our demand analysis is based on an intensive understanding of the physicians, payers, regulatory bodies, and the patients in need of new drugs, across various therapeutic areas including but not limited to oncology, hematology, CNS, gastrointestinal and rare diseases. We are here to help our clients make critical decisions about how and when to approach the Japanese market with their cutting edge technology.

Forecasting models

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Pricing assumptions

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Biosimilar market analysis

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Leader

Tosh Nagate

DVM, PhD, MBA, Founder & President

Tosh is the leading expert in sales forecasting and valuation in the pharmaceutical industry in Japan.
He is the author of numerous research articles, including the first and only textbook in the area of pharma sales forecasting in Japan.
Tosh brings 15 years of industry experience preceded by 15+ years in academic research. Before founding e-Projection, Tosh was chief analyst and Director of Sales Forecasting on the Global Marketing team at Takeda Pharmaceuticals.
Prior to Takeda, he was Product/Portfolio Manager at Abbott Laboratories.
Tosh holds an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business (2014)
and a PhD from Shinshu University School of Medicine (2009). He is a veterinarian by training.

Case

Japan Opportunity Assessment

US-based biotech company developing phase II product in US/EU, trying to assess whether to expand development activities into Japan now or later. In planning for an IPO in a few months time, the company needed to ensure that investors understood the true global value of their product.

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Business Development Support

US biotech company developing phase III product for treatment of a cardiac disease in a hospital setting. Seeking to investigate the Japanese market for their product, find local partners with expertise in the therapeutic area.

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Forecasting models

Our comprehensive demand analysis and forecasting are constructed by combining real world data with market insights through advanced modeling techniques, which will enable our clients to assess and maximize their product value. We can develop solid algorithms of both patient-based and demand-based sales forecasts of new & existing products.

Forecasting methodologies may include cutting-edge technologies such as:

  • Time series analysis
  • Benchmarking
  • Market share allocation
  • Patient-based vs demand-based forecasting
  • Population demographics
  • Probability analysis
  • Market diffusion curves

Pricing assumptions

Expertise in pricing is the crown jewel of our contribution to our clients, provided by the best talents in the industry.
We closely watch pricing trends and continuously follow up with government officials and thought leadership in order to give our clients the most up-to-date pricing assumptions.

Biosimilar market analysis

The first biosimilars were launched in Japan in the last decade, and more have come to market in recent years.
Not all biosimilars have been successful.
The e-Projection team has been observing and analyzing the market of biosimilars since its inception and has substantial knowledge regarding the features that are essential in order to champion the Japanese marketplace.
Biosimilars are sensitive to policy-making, particularly to healthcare cost containment measures. We directly communicate with government officials and decision-makers about upcoming trends of relevant policies. We also carry out quantitative PEST analysis in order for clients to understand the profitability of their biosimilar products based on multiple environmental scenarios.

We help non-Japanese pharma/biotech companies
understand and expand into the Japanese market.